It emerged that Siemens has ruled out any possibility of bidding for the Parsons

It emerged that Siemens has ruled out any possibility of bidding for the Parsons steam turbine business put up for sale by Rolls- Royce, and confirmed recent reports that it was delaying plans to expand its high profile computer chip plant. Siemens, the German industrial giant, yesterday dealt a double blow to job hopes on Tyneside. After all, at senior levels the City is probably the most cosmopolitan place in Europe.But many people really do have serious practical doubts about the emu project because it is so politically driven and in danger of losing touch with business, employment and financial market reality. But the author, David Lascelles, has detected a scepticism that is abundantly clear to anyone listens to what is being said around the City.This is not a matter of raw Tory europhobia. Written as a report in 2003 to Prime Minister Blair on the break up of emu, it makes plausible reading.Scenarios are of course just that and who can tell whether this one will prove to be total nonsense or not. But at the same time the stability pact, which is meant to keep deficits under control, will put a squeeze on the budget.President Chirac will propose reform of the pact, but Germany will take fright at the thought of bailing out weaker emu members, so confidence in the euro will slump.Rescue plans for emu fall apart, France reverts to the franc and soon after Italy, Spain and Ireland quit. It will be forced out of emu within a year of EMU's full implementation in 2002.With late 1990s growth in the world economy running out of steam, the French economy will come under heavy pressure in 2002 as the presidential election approaches with no easing of unemployment.

Substitutes not used: Richardson, Boland, Filan (gk).Tottenham Hotspur (4-4-2): Walker; Carr, Calderwood, Campbell, Wilson; Fox, Nielsen (Dozzell, 85), Howells, Sinton; Iversen, Sheringham. When you think that almost every household appliance and even some greetings cards (the kind that sing when you open them) contain a microchip already, the possible spillover effects of falling prices of the relevant technologies are mind-boggling.It is simply not possible to forecast what will happen to European economies after monetary union, which is why economists have taken instead to publishing imaginary scenarios, ranging from the Panglossian to the darkly apocalyptic.Most of the printed predictions emerging from the City err on the optimistic side, which is not surprising, since investment banks are more interested in building market share in the new euro capital markets than in frightening off potential clients with dire warnings that it will all fall apart.Yesterday the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation, a think tank funded by 30 banks and companies, the Bank of England and the Treasury, published an antidote to all that.Calling its pamphlet "The Crash of 2003," the CSFI suggests that France rather than Italy will be the weak link in the chain. This week's new deal could restore that economic magic in the next century. When the momentum of liberalisation faltered, so did those widespread gains in prosperity. The progressive cuts in tariffs during the next four years will reduce prices and boost demand, generating more output and jobs around the world.It was successive rounds of free trade pacts that delivered the golden age of growth in the 1950s and 1960s. The IT industries are already expanding by around 15 per cent a year, making them the fastest- growing sector virtually everywhere in the world.

By tonight countries accounting for 85 per cent of trade in goods from computer monitors to software should have signed up.It is hard to exaggerate how important this is. But it has, amazingly, come up with an eye-opening agreement to crown its first year of existence.This is the deal to abolish tariffs on $600bn-worth of information technology products by the year 2000, in the biggest ever free trade agreement for a single industry. The World Trade Organisation, which took over a year ago from the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and has held its annual meeting in Singapore this week, has been as ditchwater- dull as its predecessor. That, together with domestic political considerations, perhaps explains why there were so many no shows at breakfast yesterday - 74 were invited, 45 turned up.As Groucho Marx once observed: never join any club that would have you as a member.A change of name has done nothing to reduce the narcoleptic effect of detailed international trade negotiations. Would National Power and PowerGen, both of whom have done well in overseas markets, really like finding themselves bracketed with Thames Water, for instance, whose foreign diversification has proved an unmitigated disaster?The danger is that this campaign, far from accentuating the positive, will end up applying the tar even more liberally. Substitutes not used: Edinburgh, Nethercott, Allen, Bardsen (gk).Referee: G Willard (Worthing).Bookings: Coventry: Whelan; Tottenham: Calderwood, Sinton, Sheringham.Man of the match: Sheringham.Attendance: 19,675..